Agenda item

Report of the Head of Education Commissioning and School Organisation.

Over the last 5 years there has been a significant reduction in demand for school places within Camden and the wider London area. Forecasts of pupil demand have also been created in times of unprecedented change and challenge for families in Camden. Specifically, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have fundamentally altered people’s lives and changed patterns of migration within central London and Camden Borough specifically. The impacts of these have reduced the anticipated level of demand for school places. These factors also created a significant degree of uncertainty, and a less stable environment in which to plan ahead. Our modelling aims to account for these as best as they can, but they also rely on assumptions of future trends that can only be accurately assessed over time.

In response to these changing local demographics the Council has taken a proactive approach to school place planning. Since 2018 the Council, in partnership with its family of schools, has removed 10 forms of entry from our reception intake, responding to a 24% reduction in birth rates across the borough. These difficult decisions including four school closures, the most recent being the closure of St Dominic’s Catholic Primary School, ensure that our family schools remain both sustainable and responsive to the needs of their communities.

Forecasts up to 2021 indicated a significant ongoing decline in pupil numbers. At that stage the Council indicated some caution in those figures as potentially over-estimating the ongoing impact of reduced migration caused by both Brexit and the Pandemic. In September 2021 and 2022 entry in to the Boroughs Secondary and Primary Schools were above the forecast for those years and this is a positive position for Camden Schools. During this period Camden Schools also welcomed a large number of Afghan and Ukrainian Families as part of the Afghan resettlement programme and the Homes for Ukraine programme. Whilst a number of the pupils have relocated within the UK, a proportion have also settled within Camden and bolstered pupil numbers as a result. As the national position has stabilised and our local position has taken account of these trends our most recent forecasts indicate a more consistent position and now show an increase in pupil demand towards the end of the decade.

The forecast data does however still show supressed birth rates within London and Camden alongside the continued effect of reductions in families moving into Camden during the COVID period.

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The surplus over the reception year admission number is estimated to from 7% in 2023/24 to 13% by the middle of the decade before falling to 4% by 2032/33.

The Secondary Year 7 surplus is estimated to increase from 10% in 2023/24 to 21% by 2032/3. 

This level of anticipated surplus provision within both phases does require responses overtime to ensure the sustainability of our school offer.

Ensuring Camden has the right number of school places is both the Council’s statutory responsibility and aligns with our We Make Camden principals. Preventing schools becoming financially vulnerable and thus subject to unplanned change, helps maintain strong, safe and open communities. Good and outstanding schools promote independent healthy lives and support robust growth and jobs.  

The data and forecasts of the demand for school places within Camden is reviewed annually by the authority and made publicly available. Our review incorporates all underlying demographic data including: existing provision and capacity, actual registered births and fertility, the latest GLA forecasts for births and their relationship to school rolls, together with the additional pupils associated with new housing developments. The analysis is used to help us make informed decisions about the future organisation of school places.

Our understanding of the current demographic pressures facing schools has also informed the development of Camden’s Education Strategy ‘Building Back Stronger. A significant part of the purpose of the of that strategy, and our continued school organisation work, is to ensure that our school system is sustainable and stable, maximising the opportunities for school level collaboration.

Consideration was given to the report of the Head of Education Commissioning and School Organisation.

The Head of Education Commissioning and School Organisation summarised the report which provided the annual analysis and interpretation of information relating to both primary and secondary school provision in Camden. The review incorporated all underlying demographic data including the following: existing provision and capacity, actual registered births and fertility, the latest Greater London Authority (GLA) forecasts for births and their relationship to school rolls; and the additional pupils associated with new housing developments. This annual analysis was used to support informed decision-making about the future organisation of school places. It was noted that this year had seen an increase in numbers which marked the end of a depressive period reported in the previous year years, however ongoing stability should be taken with caution. Primary and secondary schools faced different challenges and were affected differently by key variables. The Council had to be active and innovative in making sure the system was stable going forward.

The Chair thanked officers for the report and invited questions and comments from the Committee. The following was discussed:

-       In the context of Form Entries (FE) reducing across Camden, it was acknowledged that any discussions on deciding which secondary schools FEs could be removed would need to be in partnership, transparent and clear on the outset. However, there would be different conversations with each school as those decisions were not simple and there were currently four secondary schools with 4FE, which meant they were already at a financially critical stage. It was confirmed there were different collaborate strategies in supporting this trend, for example the post-16 LaSWAP (La Sainte Union, William Ellis, Acland Burghley and Parliament Hill schools) Sixth Form Consortium.

-       In relation to the cause of falling rolls, officers confirmed that the impact of falling pupil rolls works differently in primary and secondary schools, for example at secondary there was the role of parental preference. Ofsted ratings and mobility were factors, meaning some schools were more effective increasing their viability. Many external factors were out of the Council’s control. Additionally, it was confirmed that the birth rate measured the number of children born in Camden hospitals. By children reaching school age, children born in the borough may have moved outside of Camden due to a number of reasons.

-       In relation to private education, officers confirmed that the Council did not have individual data on whether children born in the borough went on to attend a private school, adding some data did not correlate to tell the full story.

-       In relation to SEND place planning provision, a Co-opted Member asked how the Council would plan for appropriate and sufficient provision of school places for children with different types and increasing demand of need, and how would any gaps in provision be identified. In response, it was confirmed that the Council was committed to SEND school place planning. A High Needs Block (HNB) subgroup had been established and Education colleagues would be working with Health colleagues, further developing the Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA), to understand the needs in the system and to identify gaps in provision. The JSNA would help reform the HNB and identify which areas needed investment or expanding. The headlines of SEND development would feed into a number of governance channels and the SEND annual report would be available to the Committee in April 2024.

-       In response to a Member querying the effect of building development on child yield, officers confirmed that Education colleagues worked with the Planning Authority to forecast child yield. Any calculation took into account the building development timeline, number and type of units, contractual state, and the historical analysis of similar building child yield. The child yield also accounted for the percentage of children in new developments expected to enrol into private sector education.  It was confirmed that the key variable to child yield was birth rate, more than migration and housing developments. Although, if significant developments were to be abandoned a gap in the forecast would be created, but there would be time to respond to the changes in estimates of future reception intake.

-       A Member asked how the Council determined what future SEND provision school places were required when a baby was born and how that was incorporated into place planning. It was confirmed that Education worked closely with Public Health colleagues on the increase in SEND needs and part of their considerations was that percentage increase in population would not correlate equally to the increase in SEND needs and was a more complex story. Public Health studied population needs and there were early identification assessments through Early Years. There were a range of actions the system could do to identify different needs, ranging from profound need, prebirth assessments and speech and language needs. The aim of the system was to ensure intervention was in place at the earliest opportunity and before school transitions.

-       Camden had the second lowest fertility rate recorded in any local authority area in the country.

-       In relation to Appendix B Table 2B, Members asked what the Council’s plans were to respond to the number of schools showing a red traffic light rating due to a surplus of school places equal or over 10.01%. In response, it was confirmed that the table set out last years’ data which showed two schools which had since closed (St. Dominic’s and St. Michaels). The Council was speaking directly to other schools to discuss reducing pupil admissions which would upgrade the red grades. Due to the now better position of pupil numbers, the issue was now in a less existential context, however still had to be addressed as an ongoing discussion. The Council would continue to support schools in how they managed on a reduced budget and retain flexibility if demand increased, whilst maintaining high quality outcomes. Next years’ report would show improved traffic light positions. In response to a Member asking if Abacus Academy school was viable in projections, officers stated that any decisions or organisational changes for academies were for the Department for Education (DfE), even though the school was still a part of Camden Learning. It was noted that the proportion of empty spaces at the school were in higher year groups and not lower.

-       Officers confirmed they would be establishing an ongoing school place planning group for school leaders, involving Camden Learning, to interrogate the topic and share their views on structural changes and collaborative arrangements. Their first meeting would be held in spring 2024.

RESOLVED –

THAT the report be noted.