Agenda item

Report of the Head of Education Commissioning and School Organisation.

Over the last 5 years there has been a significant reduction in demand for school places within Camden and the wider London area. Forecasts of pupil demand have also been created in times of unprecedented change and challenge for families in Camden. Specifically, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have fundamentally altered people’s lives and changed patterns of migration within central London and Camden Borough specifically. The impacts of these have reduced the anticipated level of demand for school places. These factors also created a significant degree of uncertainty, and a less stable environment in which to plan ahead. Our modelling aims to account for these as best as they can, but they also rely on assumptions of future trends that can only be accurately assessed over time.

In response to these changing local demographics the Council has taken a proactive approach to school place planning. Since 2018 the Council, in partnership with its family of schools, has removed 10 forms of entry from our reception intake, responding to a 24% reduction in birth rates across the borough. These difficult decisions including four school closures, the most recent being the closure of St Dominic’s Catholic Primary School, ensure that our family schools remain both sustainable and responsive to the needs of their communities.

Forecasts up to 2021 indicated a significant ongoing decline in pupil numbers. At that stage the Council indicated some caution in those figures as potentially over-estimating the ongoing impact of reduced migration caused by both Brexit and the Pandemic. In September 2021 and 2022 entry into the Boroughs Secondary and Primary Schools were above the forecast for those years and this is a positive position for Camden Schools. During this period Camden Schools also welcomed a large number of Afghan and Ukrainian Families as part of the Afghan resettlement programme and the Homes for Ukraine programme. Whilst a number of the pupils have relocated within the UK, a proportion have also settled within Camden and bolstered pupil numbers as a result. As the national position has stabilised and our local position has taken account of these trends our most recent forecasts indicate a more consistent position and now show an increase in pupil demand towards the end of the decade.

The forecast data does however still show supressed birth rates within London and Camden alongside the continued effect of reductions in families moving into Camden during the COVID period.

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The surplus over the reception year admission number is estimated to rise 7% in 2023/24 to 13% by the middle of the decade before falling to 4% by 2032/33.

The Secondary Year 7 surplus is estimated to increase from 10% in 2023/24 to 21% by 2032/3. 

This level of anticipated surplus provision within both phases does require responses overtime to ensure the sustainability of our school offer.

Ensuring Camden has the right number of school places is both the Council’s statutory responsibility and aligns with our We Make Camden principals. Preventing schools becoming financially vulnerable and thus subject to unplanned change, helps maintain strong, safe and open communities. Good and outstanding schools promote independent healthy lives and support robust growth and jobs.  

The data and forecasts of the demand for school places within Camden is reviewed annually by the authority and made publicly available. Our review incorporates all underlying demographic data including: existing provision and capacity, actual registered births and fertility, the latest GLA forecasts for births and their relationship to school rolls, together with the additional pupils associated with new housing developments. The analysis is used to help us make informed decisions about the future organisation of school places.

Our understanding of the current demographic pressures facing schools has also informed the development of Camden’s Education Strategy ‘Building Back Stronger. A significant part of the purpose of the of that strategy, and our continued school organisation work, is to ensure that our school system is sustainable and stable, maximising the opportunities for school level collaboration.

Consideration was given to the report of the Head of Education Commissioning and School Organisation.

Nick Smith, Head of Education Commissioning and School Organisation, introduced the report. The following points were highlighted:

·       There had been a fall in demand for school places in the previous 6-7 years and a number of Form Entries (FE) had been reduced. The decreasing demand position was due to a number of factors, including a falling birth rate, falling fertility rate, and the impact of migration in the pandemic period. This years’ report presented a better position, suggesting that many of those factors were stabilising. Additionally, the Council had managed the primary school estate to ensure they were in a mor sustainable position, which going forward would have an positive effect on the secondary sector. The secondary sector was also affected by other variable factors.

·       The estimated proportion of pupils attending secondary independent schools rose to 38% during the pandemic, from 34% in 2018/19. Recent analysis had shown this proportion fell to 32%.

·       A school place planning group had been established to sit alongside the High Needs Block (HNB) subgroup. This purpose of this group was to review pupil numbers, population data, demand factors and the school estate. There was potential for surplus mainstream school estate to be used for the high needs sector. The school place planning group was expecting to meet in January 2024 and a number of headteachers had come forward interested to participate and they were looking for more interested stakeholders to take part. School place planning was still a live issue and the Council had taken significant actions to address the position, which was not uniform across the borough. There would be more detailed work to follow the group’s work involving more stakeholders and schools.

The Chair thanked officers for their report and invited questions and comments from the Forum. The following was discussed:

·       In relation to section 5, independent school numbers, it was confirmed that Camden’s status was similar to statistical neighbours. It was also noted that Camden was a net importer of pupils. To attract more children into Camden schools, there had to be realism in which parents should be targeted, as there were many parents who would not engage with the state sector at all, but there were sections parents who were more on the fence and would be willing to be given the case for state education. Councillor Boyland, Cabinet Member for Best Start for Children and Families, stated that the Comms Team was working on promotional and digital work for Camden Schools, would be speaking to headteachers in January 2024 about the work, and there were ideas to engage a focus group. A digital marketing officer would be recruited to Camden Learning soon.

·       It was confirmed that Camden did benchmark with other boroughs and local authorities regularly and they were confident Camden schools had a strong offer.

·       Officers stated that Camden was active in monitoring and reviewing primary and secondary pupil numbers by focussing on keeping the sectors sustainable and best supporting the school system. The cohorts between and within the primary and secondary sectors were different and there were nuances within the school system and across the borough. Camden was not alone in facing challenging decisions about school place provision.

·       It was confirmed that the next iteration of the school place planning paper would incorporate SEND place planning and that the HNB subgroup would sit next to the work of the school place planning group. There was an opportunity for growth in in the pattern of provision.

·       It was confirmed that Camden engaged with the Catholic and Church of England school groups in their forecasting and decision making.

·       It was confirmed that it was forecast data which suggested that Camden’s declining birth-rate was stabilising, however Camden’s track record for forecasting this variable was reliable.

RESOLVED -

THAT Schools Forum note the report.